On the offensive end, Collins has much work to do to fully integrate with Capela. Simply having two bigs patrolling the paint and actively challenging shots seems to have made a difference in Atlanta’s defense so far. While it’s too early to write off favorable variance as a key factor, both Collins and Capela rank top 20 in contested shots per game. To this point, they’ve also been superb at making opponents miss on these shots, as teams have shot just 53.5% at the rim with both Collins and Capela on the court, 97th percentile. While it has to be said that Collins has likely benefited from unsustainably poor opponent three-point shooting, he and Capela have done an effective job of limiting shots at the rim, the most important aspect of NBA defense. Known as mostly an offensive player, it’s curious that Collins’ defensive impact, measured by his on/off, is buttressing his impressive performance in a medley of advanced stats. More eyebrow raising, Atlanta has a 104.4 defensive rating with Collins on, and opponents are attempting only 31.9% of their total shot attempts at the rim with both Collins and Capela on the floor, good for 65th percentile. Per Cleaning the Glass, Collins’ on/off differential ranks in the 91st percentile. However, his gaudy impact stats have more clarity when you look at his excellent on/off splits, namely his impact on Atlanta’s defense.Īccording to PBP Stats, my on/off database of choice, the Hawks have a +11.1 net rating with Collins on the floor, and a -11.3 net rating with him off. It makes intuitive sense that someone would become less effective when you take away a big chunk of what they’re best at. 37 in Box Plus-Minus.Īt first, this can be difficult to square with both his pronounced decline in box score numbers, as well as his shift in offensive role. Instead, Collins’ advanced numbers, captured in all-in-one metrics which seek to ballpark player contributions to the team over 100 possessions, are collectively the best of his career.Īt the time of writing, Collins stands near the top of some of the best known impact metrics. However, 13 games in, that has not been correct, at least by some measures. This change is rather straightforwardly explained by the addition of the paint-clogging Capela, forcing Collins out wide more often, and one might expect that moving Collins out of his primary offensive role would lessen his overall impact in games. For the first time in his career, he’s averaging more opportunities from spot-up than pick-and-roll, a remarkable shift in usage from when he entered the league.
Further, he’s popping on pick-and-roll about half the time compared to around a third the season prior. Of course, Collins is playing less minutes this season, but that’s a clear change. In the 2019-20 season, Collins averaged 5.1 possessions per game as a P&R roll man, per Synergy this season, he’s down to 2.2 per contest.
His per-36 minute stats are the lowest they’ve been since his rookie year.Ī knee jerk reaction to a player experiencing a clear statistical dip in a contract year is “well, what’s up with that?” Following the acquisition of decidedly non-spacing center Clint Capela, Collins has seen his pick-and-roll usage - the bread and butter of his offensive game - decline. A simpler observation on the progress of Collins’ season is this: his counting stats are down.Ĭoming off a “20 & 10” season (or half of one, anyway) on remarkable efficiency, Collins has seen his counting stats dip below his career averages in points and rebounds this campaign. What this means is that there will be attentive speculation about his future in Atlanta from all corners of the NBA discourse, chiefly centered around the topic of whether it makes sense for the Hawks to invest a significant chunk of cap space over his second deal.įor me, that remains an open question and contingent on Atlanta’s team building strategy, particularly from a resource allocation perspective, and that’s a topic for another piece. Without further ado … John Collins, impact stats kingĪs everyone reading this knows by now, John Collins is in a contract year. I’ll try and pick out a few things that caught my eye and leave them for you here.Įditor’s Note: All stats current as of Tuesday, Jan. The idea here is to explore various trends and items of interest relating to the Atlanta Hawks that are more suited for extended discussion than can be allowed on Twitter. This space will function as a deeper dive into content that I’ve touched on via Twitter, my preferred medium.
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